Small numbers this hurricane season!

There were no hurricanes this summer until Hurricane Humberto was classed as such  on September 11th.  Scientists are still debating why, in a period of global warming, there are fewer hurricanes (cyclones) spawned by the warm Caribbean waters.

This lack of cyclone activity will be the subject of comment in the next IPCC Report, scheduled for the end of September.  Time magazine quotes from the draft IPCC report:

”.. it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes.”

According to Time:

“There’s an intense scientific debate going on here, and new research conducted since 2007 has given indications that the hurricane picture under climate change may be more complicated than previously supposed. That’s because even as warmer oceans provide jet fuel for hurricanes, changes in atmospheric wind patterns can still interfere with their formation by preventing storms from forming or, literally, tearing them apart.”

Tornadoes are fueled by heat, just like hurricanes, but there may be fewer of these North American extreme weather events in the future.  Yet, as 4RG has previously stated in its commentary,  there is a reason for this possible development. Click through on this link:  “The Biggest Ever!”,

Another unexpected consequence:  winters in North America have brought extraordinary snowfalls to several large cities in the United States, and record rainfall and cold weather to the UK. For the record UK rainfall, click on this link: “. . . some areas in the east of England could see a month’s worth of rainfall in a few hours.” For commentary on the UK cold weather, click on this link:  “The Arctic Jet Stream has gone loopy”.

So in many instances we can’t judge the progress of climate change by the immediate weather.  What really counts are the trends, and they can leave no doubt: the planet is getting warmer.




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