Peeking behind the polls!

By Peter Jones

Our last blog referred  to recent Ipsos Reid public opinion polls more favourable to the Federal Conservatives. In these comments we look at general factors that may have influenced these results.

For some years now both the Federal Government, the Conservative Party and the fossil fuel industry advertisements boosted the image of Canada as an energy superpower.  The Federal Government concluded these campaigns were working, a judgment that is supported by the more positive view of the Conservatives revealed by these polls.

The Conservatives claim that they are the party that can best balance economic growth and protection of the environment.   The number of Canadians who agree that the Conservatives have found the right balance between economic growth and environmental protection is increasing.

The sharp decline in the international price of oil may have persuaded many Canadians to agree with the Prime Minister’s “crazy to limit” remark. Postponing regulation can be seen as an example of balancing the economy and the environment.

Many Canadians believe that the US is doing little to limit its emissions. These Canadians see the sense of Harper’s policy of delaying regulation of emissions from the oil and gas industry until the US is ready to act.

Is there dissatisfaction with the performance of Federal opposition parties on environmental issues?

Have these parties failed to adopt well-defined positions that demonstrate the short-comings of Conservative policy on the environment?  On some climate change issues there is no difference between the parties.  For example, on the Keystone XL Pipeline, the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP all agree the US should approve the Keystone pipeline.

The NDP propose a national cap and trade infrastructure to control GHG emissions. This subject is technical and may not interest most voters. What’s more, voters will probably not be able to distinguish the NDP platform from the Alberta Regulatory Scheme that the Conservatives may adopt into their platform for the next election campaign.

Carbon Tax?  Aside from the Greens, no Federal party,  has clearly committed to this option.  Unless there is a significant change in political strategy, it won’t be a significant issue in this year’s election.

For Canadian concerned about climate change the 2014 year  end was not promising. Let’s hope 2015 is better.